2. Bundesliga 2022/23 MD21 Preview: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
At the start of the campaign, you would've been hard-pressed to have any expert predicting that entering Matchday 21, Kaiserslautern would be in the promotion hunt. Yet here we are. They face an uphill task on Friday night when they travel to Paderborn.
Paderborn ended the 2022 calendar on the back of a four-game losing run. However, the extended break has done them a world of good, with Lukas Kwasniok's side winning three on the bounce. Last week, Paderborn overturned a 2:0 deficit after 5 minutes to secure a 3:4 in Hannover.
Kaiserslautern had been on a fantastic run, five wins in a row and the inform team of the 2. Bundesliga. However, their impressive form ended thanks to a resurgent St. Pauli.
With so much on the line for both sides, whose football will reign supreme under the lights of the Home Deluxe Arena?
Last time they met
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0:1 SC Paderborn 07
SCP: (82’ Felix Platte)
When the two sides met at the Fritz-Walter-Stadion on Matchday 4, it was a tough and physical affair. Neither gave an inch, and both defences provided complex challenges for their attacking counterparts. The breakthrough would come in the dying stages.
Richard Tachie's ball found Julian Justvan, whose initial shot was saved by Andreas Luthe. But the shot-stopper, who joined from Union Berlin in the summer, couldn't control the initial effort, and Felix Platte was on hand to give Paderborn all three points.
Key players
Robert Leipertz
Paderborn is the 2. Bundesliga's top scorers so far with 44 goals in 20 matches, six better than the next best. Contributing 25% of the goals for Paderborn this season is Robert Leipertz. The 30-year-old has only once managed to score double-figure goals in a single season, which was back in the 2015/16 season for Heidenheim. With 11 goals so far, Leipertz has managed to eclipse this with 14 fixtures remaining.
So why has Leipertz been so prolific?
In simple terms, Leipertz has been playing in a two-attack forward compared to Heidenheim, who plays a single striker. Leipertz played as a wide midfielder and a number 10 where he was more of a distributor than a finisher. Now at Paderborn, Leipertz is used in dynamic and effective ways.
Terrence Boyd
When Terrence Boyd entered his first full season with Kaiserslautern, he'd only had three previous seasons in the 2. Bundesliga with RB Leipzig and Darmstadt with mixed results. In 42 appearances, Boyd managed a modest return of 6 goals. A stint with Toronto FC welded no goals but a return to Germany with 3. Liga Hallescher FC was just the remedy the German American needed to find his goal-scoring touch, with 40 goals from 90 appearances.
Boyd has carried on his goal-scoring ways with 10 this term. And one can argue that Boyd should have added more to his tally. Boyd is lethal inside the 18-yard box, with all of his goals coming from the optimal scoring area this season. Kaiserslautern has found a way to get the most out of Boyd by getting balls in the box.
If Kaiserslautern can provide Boyd more than one opportunity on goal as they managed against St. Pauli last weekend, Die Roten Teufel has a chance
From the coaches
The magnitude of this encounter isn’t lost on either Lukas Kwasniok or Dirk Schuster, here is what both had to say in the lead up to this match.
Lukas Kwasniok
“New pitch, under the floodlights, the knives are sharp - on both sides! It's going to be a hot fight!”
“Except for Kai Flefisch and Maximilian Rohr, all players are available to me. I don't know yet how we'll fill the midfield, it certainly won't be static.”
“The defeat on the previous match day will not upset Kaiserslautern. They always have a lot of feet in the penalty area, a very stable team and with Terrence Body as a weapon!”
“It will certainly be a game of patience tomorrow, our fans need be aware of that. Kaiserslautern want to wear you down, they are an action-dominant team, we tend to be game-dominant. We need patience, patience without losing purpose.”
Dirk Schuster
“In the end, we deservedly lost the game at St. Pauli because we let ourselves be fooled a bit offensively. We want to do better on Friday in Paderborn.”
“You have to look at each player individually. Philipp Klement, Robert Bormuth, Ben Zolinski and Marlon Ritter left Paderborn for different reasons. Of course these players want to prove themselves there, but the feelings they have when they return will certainly vary.”
“We have to work defensively against Paderborn, that's a priority. In addition, of course, we have to develop the motivation to play boldly ourselves and to find the space to be competitive.”
Expected lineups
Despite giving up three goals away from home in Hannover, I expect a few changes to Paderborn on Friday. However, there will be one forced change to the starting XI.
Defensive midfielder Kai Klefisch left last weekend's game with a ruptured laceration to his ankle and is expected to miss considerable time; his replacement would've been Maximilian Rohr. However, Rohr was ruled out on Thursday. This selection dilemma will likely see Marco Schuster play alongside Ron Schallenberg.
Kaiserslautern struggled to break down St. Pauli last time out. As Dirk Schuster mentioned in his post-match press conference, they got it tactically wrong by focusing on nullifying the impact of fullback Leart Paqarada.
I don't expect many changes, Hendrick Zuck is available to return after serving his yellow card suspension, and I suspect Erik Durm will drop to the bench. Nicolai Rapp toed a thin line at the Millerntor. With Boris Tomiak available for selection, I expect him to return in favour of the on-loan Werder Bremen midfielder.
Prediction
I'm excited that this epic encounter will be available on the World Feed for 2. Bundesliga fans to view. This is going to be an epic game of different footballing philosophies colliding. I expect Paderborn will try to assert their dominance early, and for them, keeping the game open is precisely how they'll be able to create chances and put pressure on one of the better defences in the league. Kaiserslautern will need to keep the game cagey, physical, and tough, but they'll need to be efficient in the final third to put Paderborn away.
I’m predicting a 2:1 victory for Paderborn.