2. Bundesliga 2022/23 MD32: Promotion/Relegation Battle
The 2. Bundesliga has firmly entered the final month of what has been another engrossing season. One full of drama, entertainment and plenty of excitement. And, as we reach the nitty gritty, some teams are hoping to bask in the glory of playing first tier football next season, as well as the benefits that come with playing the Bundesliga.
On the other end of the spectrum, relegation to the 3. Liga sees a massive drop in TV money, the marketing aspects of being one of the 36 member clubs of the DFL, and for some this could be a positive. No Video Assistant Referee.
With 3 games remaining in the 2022/23 2. Bundesliga season, there is plenty to play for 14 of the 18 clubs. Let’s meet the contenders for promotion, and those trying to remain in Germany’s second tier for another season.
Aufstieg
SV Darmstadt 98
Darmstadt have been top of the class, spending 20 consecutive matchdays leading the charge in the 2. Bundesliga. A big part of their success has come from the defence. As legendary Alabama coach Paul “Bear” Bryant once said: “offence wins games, defence wins championships''. This philosophy is true for Darmstadt who own the league's best defence with only 27 goals conceded in 31 matches. Whilst their goal scoring prowess, or lack thereof could become an issue in the summer, the defence has held its own.
On Matchday 32, Darmstadt will secure automatic promotion with victory over Hannover on Sunday. Torsten Lieberknecht’s side could even secure a place in the Bundesliga should Hamburger SV lose in Jahn Regensburg. A draw would mean that Hamburg would still be in hunt, mathematically speaking. Darmstadt can’t claim the title this weekend, as a Heidenheim defeat would mean a six-point with two games to go.
Win: Promoted
Draw: If Hamburger SV fails to win, promoted
Loss: If Hamburger SV loses in Regensburg, promoted
1.FC Heidenheim
Heidenheim enters Matchday 32 on a four game unbeaten run, which compared to those challenging Frank Schmidt’s side in the race for promotion, is the most consistent. The 3rd best attack in the league has Tim Kleindienst for the significant improvement Heidenheim’s goal scoring output. Kleindienst, has 23 of the 61 goals scored this season and will almost certainly add to his tally come the end of the season.
The run at home is quite tricky, Paderborn can easily play party pooper to Heidenheim’s first ascent. Followed by Jahn Regensburg and Sandhausen, don’t be deceived by their table position, both sides will be hungry to survive for another season. Heidenheim could secure promotion if they beat Paderborn, and Hamburg fails in Regensburg.
Win: Promoted, if Hamburger SV loses
Draw: Remain 2nd, deficit decreases to two-point should Hamburger SV
Loss: Remain 2nd, if Hamburger SV wins in Regensburg the gap becomes 1-point.
Hamburger SV
We’ve seen this story before with Hamburger SV, with a few games to go this giant of the north is trying to claw their way back to the Bundesliga. In what is a 5th attempt to gain promotion, Hamburg have fallen into the same traps that previous renditions of this club have experienced.
The biggest noticeable downturn has been defensively, Hamburg only conceded 19 goals in the Hinrunde with a strong defensive pairing of Sebastian Schonlau and Mario Vušković. But since the Vušković suspension, Hamburg has been less stable with various different defensive pairing. 24 goals conceded in 14 games since the restart hasn’t been ideal.
Now, there are two ways it can go for Hamburg post their game in Regensburg. If they win, Hamburg can deny Heidenheim the opportunity of automatic promotion. This will also rule out Paderborn from the play-offs as well as putting a dent in St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf’s charge. Defeat put a play-off return in considerable doubt.
Win: Remain 3rd. However, can reduce the gap to 2nd placed Heidenheim should they fail to win
Draw: Remain 3rd, lose the chance to win the league, depending on Heidenheim’s result automatic promotion will still be alive. If St. Pauli or Düsseldorf win, the gap behind would only be two-points
Loss: Remain 3rd, guarantees Darmstadt’s promotion to the Bundesliga. Depending on results elsewhere, the gap behind could shrink to one-point
FC St. Pauli
Heading into the Rückrunde, St. Pauli were just hoping to climb out of relegation danger. Now, they are on the brink of producing an extraordinary turn around that results in a play-off berth. The change in management from Timo Schulz to Fabian Hürzeler has worked wonders and it’s noticeable defensively.
In the first half of the season, St. Pauli conceded 25 goals which was amongst the worst in the lead. Back in the present, only 10 goals have been conceded since the new year, a league best.
With a 4-point deficit to bitter rivals Hamburg, St. Pauli will need a bit of help. To start with, they’ll need Hamburg to lose in Regensburg. If they take care of business against Fortuna Düsseldorf it will certainly be game on. Defeat and a Hamburg win will dash their play-off hopes.
Win: Remain 4th, should HSV lose the gap to 3rd place would be one-point. However, a Hamburg win keeps the gap at four.
Draw: Remain 4th if Paderborn fails against Heidenheim. St. Pauli drops to 5th if Paderborn wins.
Loss: Drop down to 5th, if Paderborn fails against Heidenheim. St. Pauli drops to 6th if Paderborn wins. A Hamburg win amongst this will end St. Pauli’s promotion hopes.
Fortuna Düsseldorf
For a club with the ambition of promotion, the 2022/23 season has been an up and down affair. Nevertheless, Fortuna Düsseldorf is on the up, with a new shirt sponsor in Targo Bank announced for next season and three wins in their last four, perhaps there is a light at the end of the tunnel for Daniel Thioune’s side.
Düsseldorf’s achilles heel has been playing away from home, in 15 journeys away from the Merkur Spiel Arena Fortuna have been beaten on eight occasions. And with two of their last three games away from home, Fortuna will have to overcome their demons to remain in the mix.
To gain promotion, a lot will need to go Fortuna’s way. To start, Düsseldorf can apply the pressure by beating St. Pauli on Saturday night. A Hamburg defeat will reduce the gap to one-point with two games remaining.
Win: Up to 4th, should HSV lose the gap to 3rd place would be one-point. However, a Hamburg win keeps the gap at four.
Draw: Remain 5th if Paderborn fails against Heidenheim. Drops to 6th if Paderborn wins
Loss: Remain 5th, if Paderborn fails to win against Heidenheim. Hamburg winning will conclude Fortuna Düsseldorf’s promotion charge.
SC Paderborn 07
At the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Australian Speed Skater Steven Bradbury won an improbable gold medal in the 1000m. Paderborn are Bradbury in this situation, as they will need a lot to go right if they are to climb into a relegation play-off spot come the end of Matchday 34.
The 2. Bundesliga’s best attacking team has found many different avenues to goal, but their big struggle this season has been against the top teams with only five points from a possible 15. Their biggest test comes this weekend with a home matchup against 2nd-placed Heidenheim.
With victory, they at least have a chance of moving up the table and being in the promotion play-off battle. However, their hopes can be dashed if Hamburg takes care of business on Sunday.
Win: Up to 4th, should HSV lose the gap to 3rd place would be three-points. However, a Hamburg win keeps the gap at 6.
Draw: Remain 6th. A Hamburg win would end Paderborn’s ambitions of a play-off berth.
Loss: Remain 6th and the likelihood of a play-off spot would be next to zero.
Abstieg
1.FC Magdeburg
There isn’t a whole lot to say about Magdeburg, hence why they aren’t in the table itself. Technically, Magdeburg could be forced into the relegation play-offs should they lose their last three games, and results elsewhere alter drastically. If Bielefeld doesn’t win on the weekend, Magdeburg will be playing 2. Bundesliga football next season regardless of their result.
Greuther Fürth
As one of the two clubs relegated from the Bundesliga last season, Greuther Fürth faced question marks heading into the current campaign. Those questions only expanded further after one win in their opening 10 games under Marc Schneider. Entering the fray was former VfB Stuttgart boss Alexander Zorniger, who has kind of steadied the ship. But the threat of the play-off still looms large.
Now, a lot of the danger can be averted with a win or a draw against fellow relegation fighters Eintracht Braunschweig. But, defeat, and the teams below picking up points could see the final two games against Hamburger SV and Darmstadt be more important than expected.
Win: Safe
Draw: Could secure safety...if Arminia Bielefeld doesn’t win
Loss: Relegation play-off could loom if Arminia Bielefeld beats Kaiserslautern
Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig were predicted to return to the 3. Liga, myself included. But in spite of the noise, Braunschweig have shown resilience through challenging times, and are close to overcoming the odds. If Braunschweig were to survive, it would be one of the rare occasions that all three promoted sides managed to survive.
The engine room has been important for Michael Schiele’s side, and for Eintracht to survive they will be heavily relying on the likes of Anton Donkor, Immanuel Pherai and Anthony Ujah. The run home is quite challenging as they face Regensburg, Fürth and Rostock, all sides who are in the same situation as the Hamburger Strauße side.
Win: A win could see Braunschweig safe, if Bielefeld fails to win in Kaiserslautern
Draw: In limbo for another week
Loss: Defeat leaves the door open to relegation play-off danger if Bielefeld wins
1.FC Nürnberg
The ambitions of Nürnberg and the reality of their current situation is stark. Under Robert Klauß, an ambitious young manager who was part of the new wave of coaches coming through the 2. Bundesliga, failed to turn around the biggest issue that has plagued Nürnberg over the past few seasons...
GOALS
Now, Nürnberg are trying to avoid a situation they are all too familiar with, and that’s the relegation play-offs. Only a few seasons ago, Nürnberg were on the edge of 3. Liga obscurity in their battle with Ingolstadt. But thanks to a stoppage time goal by Lukas Mühl, Nürnberg won by the thinnest of margins.
To survive, a win against Magdeburg will certainly help their cause, but defeat opens the door to a fate they wish to avoid once again.
Win: A win could see Nürnberg safe, but it’s all reliant on an Arminia Bielefeld defeat
Draw: In limbo for another week
Loss: Defeat leaves the door open to relegation play-off danger if Bielefeld wins
Hansa Rostock
A few weeks ago, Hansa Rostock were dead in the water, almost a certainty that the club from the North would be returning to the 3. Liga after a two-year spell.
Enter Alois Schwartz
It wasn’t an easy turn around but three-consecutive victories and clean sheets has seen Hansa climb out from the basement to occupy the last guaranteed survival spot.
Defence has been the modus operandi for the league's worst attacking in the league, and if Marcus Kolke was on a promotion candidate he would easily be in contention for goal keeper of the season. He’s had some massive games through the club’s turbulent time.
All three of Rostock’s opponents are fighting the drop, so expect Hansa to shut it down and keep it tight to avoid opening themselves up to the threat of those below.
Win: A 4th consecutive win could see Hansa Rostock safe, but, like Nürnberg it’s all reliant on an Arminia Bielefeld defeat
Draw: In limbo for another week
Loss: Defeat leaves the door open to relegation play-off danger if Bielefeld wins
Arminia Bielefeld
Bottom last season, relegation play-off bound potentially. Bad decision making over the last 18-months on and off-the-field has been largely responsible for Arminia Bielefeld’s drastic decline. Multiple coaches from Frank Kramer, the short lived Uwe Forte and the questionable Daniel Scherning has left Arminia on the brink of a rare double relegation.
It seemed Uwe Koschinat was going to be Bielefeld’s knight in shining armour, but the novelty has worn off pretty quickly as Bielefeld has only picked nine points from their last eight games. Bielefeld's biggest issue this season is defence, no clean sheets since November has been symptomatic of a squad that doesn’t believe they can end the rut.
It’s a tough road ahead for Bielefeld, away at Kaiserslautern and Magdeburg with a home encounter against Paderborn is not what this defensively fragile team needs. It’s evident that fans are extremely frustrated, and the play-offs are of no comfort either after the events in 2015.
Win: Remain 16th, praying for results to go their way to close the gap to those in automatic safety places.
Draw: Remain 16th, if Braunschweig, Rostock and Nürnberg all win, Bielefeld will finish the season in the bottom 3.
Loss: Remain 16th if Jahn Regensburg and Sandhausen fail to win. Down to 17th if one of Jahn Regensburg or Sandhuasen wins. 18th should Jahn Regensburg and Sandhausen both win on Matchday 32.
Jahn Regensburg
The vast change in squad over the past few seasons has caught up with the Bavarian club as Jahn Regensburg is in danger of a first season in the 3. Liga since 2016/17. On the pitch it’s been a disaster for Regensburg who weren’t willing to look for new ideas when it was evident 6-months ago that the current regime wasn’t working.
Jahn have almost owned up to their own incompetence by axing manager Mersad Selimbović with only three games remaining, opting for former FSV Zwickau manager Joe Enochs. The 51-year-old American has no prior experience in the 2. Bundesliga, and his hiring feels like one of preparation for a 3. Liga campaign next season.
The run home for Regensburg is brutal, home battles with promotion hopefuls Hamburger SV and Heidenheim with a trip to Braunschweig doesn’t scream optimism. But they’ll hope “the new manager bounce” kicks into gear and leads to a play-off berth.
Win: Could move up to 16th if Jahn beats Hamburg and Bielefeld loses
Draw: Remain 17th, unless Sandhausen wins, then Regensburg drops to last
Loss: Can’t get relegated this week, but could be rock bottom should Sandhausen win
SV Sandhausen
Much like Rostock, Sandhausen were written off a survivor and fairly so. The appointment of Tomas Oral midway through the season would’ve convinced anyone that their fate was sealed. But, Sandhausen returned to a familiar name to help with the rescue mission. And, that’s Gerhard Kleppinger.
Kleppinger was responsible for Sandhausen’s escape in the 20/21 season before becoming the clubs Head of Scouting. Despite several failures, Kleppinger has returned to repeat his previous effort. Since his return, Kleppinger has scored seven points out of a possible 12 and, now they are level on points with Jahn and two points away from Bielefeld.
Much like Regensburg, they will face Hamburg and Heidenheim which makes their game against Hansa Rostock on the weekend incredibly important. Whilst they can’t go down this week, a poor showing could be the first step back to the 3. Liga since 2012.
Win: Could move up to 16th if Regensburg and Bielefeld loses
Draw: Could jump up to 17th, if Jahn succumbs to defeat against Hamburg
Loss: Can’t get relegated this week