2. Bundesliga 2022/23 MD33: Promotion/Relegation Battle
Matchday 32 in the 2. Bundesliga altered the complexion of the promotion and relegation races, as we enter the penultimate weekend in Germany’s premier football division, 13 clubs still have something to play for. Albeit, some clubs will most certainly be out of the mix come the end of the weekend.
In the promotion race, six can mathematically progress up to the play-offs at the very least with half of those sides battling it out for automatic promotion. Conversely, two sides have at least one foot in the 3. Liga heading into Matchday 33. But the play-off battle is still at large for some teams.
Let's take a look at all of the potential outcomes heading into another exciting weekend of 2. Bundesliga football.
Aufstieg
SV Darmstadt 98
Heading into last week, Darmstadt were presented with a second opportunity to secure automatic promotion. But once again, Torsten Lieberknecht’s side squandered that chance with an insipid performance in Hannover. All to the dismay of the 3,500 fans who made the long journey north.
Will the third time be the charm?
Victory against Magdeburg on Friday will secure automatic promotion, a draw or defeat opens the door to Heidenheim and Hamburg.
Win: Promoted
Draw: Promoted, only if Hamburg fails to win against Greuther Fürth. Should Hamburg win, then Darmstadt would hold a two-point gap advantage
Loss: Promoted, should Greuther Fürth defeat Hamburg. Could drop to 2nd if Heidenheim defeats Sandhausen
1.FC Heidenheim
At halftime in their game against Paderborn, Heidenheim were top on goal difference. But two quick goals from Paderborn’s Marvin Pieringer and Florent Muslija put a halt to Heidenheim's charge. Last weekend’s missed opportunity has now presented an additional threat to their automatic promotion hopes.
With the two sides in the bottom two to come, Heidenheim have a very winnable run home. Question is, can they put aside last week's disappointment and come back stronger in their final home game of the season?
Win: Promoted, if Hamburg loses to Greuther Füurth
Draw: Remain 2nd, if Hamburg fails to win. Drops to 3rd if Hamburg wins.
Loss: Remain 2nd, only if Hamburg doesn’t beat Fürth. Drops to 3rd if Hamburg are victorious.
Hamburger SV
For Hamburger SV to be a serious threat in the automatic promotion race with two matches to go, they need a few things to go their way. Firstly, taking care of Jahn Regensburg would be the utmost priority. Secondly, Darmstadt and Heidenheim both lost. Both came to fruition for Tim Walter, as Hamburg dismantled Regensburg 1:5.
On the outside looking in, Hamburg will still need a little help to jump to the top of the pile. But, 2nd place is very much in reach. Should they better Heidenheim’s result, Hamburg will be in a prime position to return to the Bundesliga after a five year hiatus.
Win: Up to 2nd, should Heidenheim fail to beat Sandhausen.
Draw: Remain 3rd, a Heidenheim win will make it difficult, but not impossible to reach an automatic promotion spot.
Loss: Remain 3rd, victory for Heidenheim will almost guarantee a play-off birth for Hamburg
SC Paderborn 07
As I mentioned last week, Paderborn are Steven Bradbury. To make their way to the play-offs Paderborn are going to need an extraordinary turn of events to do so. After beating Heidenheim last Sunday, Paderborn gave themselves a chance to leapfrog Hamburg on the final matchday of the season. For this scenario to happen, Paderborn has to win out, by beating Bielefeld and Nürnberg and hope Hamburg loses both of their final two games. With a superior goal difference, Paderborn would finish third. It’s possible, but not likely.
FC St. Pauli
The formula was simple for St. Pauli, beat Fortuna Düsseldorf and hope that Hamburg fails to beat Jahn Regensburg. Neither happened. St. Pauli were left frustrated by their own inefficiency in front of goal, managing only two shots on target from 21 efforts. Mathematically, St. Pauli can finish third, but the second worst scoring team in the top six is going to need to score with ruthless efficiency and pray for Hamburg and Paderborn to lose their final two games to achieve this. Very unlikely this happens, but stranger things have happened.
Fortuna Düsseldorf
The last two weekends might’ve been a great representation of the type of season Fortuna Düsseldorf has had. Against Holstein Kiel, Düsseldorf were efficient, solid defensively and looked like a team that could make a promotion charge. In their match with St. Pauli, well they offered next to nothing in a performance that was frustrating for all to see. Like St. Pauli, they need a miracle to make it to the promotion place.
Abstieg
Greuther Fürth
For long portions of their game with Eintracht Braunschweig, Greuther Fürth were safe from the threat of the relegation play-offs. But a late Bielefeld goal ensured that the safety party would have to wait for Alexander Zorniger’s squad.
Fürth are still in position A to survive, in fact they could be safe before kicking off in Hamburg. But for this to happen, it’s all reliant on Bielefeld...again.
Win: Safe.
Draw: Safe, as long as Bielefeld doesn’t win against Paderborn
Loss: Safe, if Bielefeld wins and Nürnberg loses to Rostock as Fürth has a superior goal difference. Should Bielefeld and Nürnberg win, and Eintracht Braunschweig loses, Fürth could still be safe as they have a better goal difference to Braunschweig. If all three teams mentioned win, Fürth would hold a two-point gap to Bielefeld heading into the final matchday.
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock continued their rise up the table and out of danger with a 1:2 victory over bottom placed Sandhausen. This result would’ve been particularly sweet for coach Alois Schwartz, who was coaching Sandhuasen at the start of the season.
Heading into Matchday 33, Hansa can secure safety if they can extend their winning run to 5. Ironically against another of Schwartz’s former clubs in Nürnberg. Defeat, leaves the door ajar to a play-off threat should results go against them.
Win: Safe.
Draw: Safe, if Bielefeld fails to beat Paderborn
Loss: Safe, only if Bielefeld loses. However, Bielefeld winning means Rostock would hold a one-point lead over the Ostwestfalen club heading into Matchday 34.
Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig are still in a strong position to survive, but didn’t entirely help their chances after coughing up a lead twice in their 2:2 draw with Greuther Fürth. It’s not all doom and gloom for Braunschweig, who should they survive means all promoted sides from last season managed to avoid returning to the 3. Liga.
Braunschweig hosts Jahn Regensburg this weekend, and a result against the relegation bound Bavarian club could be enough to secure their place in the 2. Bundesliga
Win: Safe, as long as Bielefeld doesn’t win.
Draw: Drop down to 15th, if Nürnberg beats Rostock. The gap to the play-off could be one-point if Bielefeld beats Paderborn.
Loss: If Nürnberg and Bielefeld loses, remain 14th but not entirely safe. A Nürnberg win drops Eintracht down to 15th. If Nürnberg and Bielefeld both win, Braunschweig drops into the relegation play-off spot on goal difference.
1.FC Nürnberg
Unlike the week before where Nürnberg choked away a 3:1 advantage with very little time remaining against Kaiserslautern, Dieter Hecking’s team had to come from behind twice to snatch a point in Magdeburg. Albeit, a rather favourable decision going the way of Nürnberg for Felix Löhkemper’s second goal.
Nürnberg will need to take care of business against Rostock if they are to produce a potential safety scenario this weekend. Should they fail to do so, the relegation play-off spot looms large.
Win: Safe, only if Bielefeld falls to Paderborn.
Draw: Remain 15th, should Bielefeld fail to win. If Bielefeld does win, Nürnberg drops to 16th on goal difference.
Loss: Remain 15th, if Paderborn defeats Bielefeld. A Bielefeld win means Nürnberg will be in the relegation play-off spot with a game remaining.
Arminia Bielefeld
Like any great magician, Arminia Bielefeld aims to make the relegation play-off threat disappear. To do this, Bielefeld had to secure victory in Kaiserslautern on Matchday 32. In a game where Bielefeld were leading for the majority, it seemed inevitable that Uwe Koschinat’s side would concede late on.
Wouldn’t you know it, Kaiserslautern, who have built a reputation for being the “comeback kids” struck late. But many couldn’t have foreseen Bielefeld picking themselves off the canvas to snatch all three points thanks to a Janni Serra 90+7’ minute winner. Bielefeld isn't out of danger yet with two tricky ties remaining, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Win: Up to 14th, should Eintracht Braunschweig and Nürnberg both lose on the weekend. 15th if one of Braunschweig or Nürnberg loses.
Draw: Remain 16th. Could be out of reach of safety should Braunschweig and Nürnberg both win
Loss: Remain 16th. Should Jahn Regensburg and Sandhausen both win, the threat of automatic relegation is very real.
Jahn Regensburg
Jahn Regensburg made the bold choice of switching managers with three games to go, either to hope for the “new manager bounce” or preparing for next season. What we saw on the weekend was the latter, Jahn were utterly destroyed by an efficient Hamburg side. Which, in the process put Jahn on the precipice of relegation.
With a five-point deficit to Bielefeld, they will have to win out and hope Bielefeld loses both games to even qualify for the play-offs.
Win: Relegated, if Bielefeld scores a draw or better against Paderborn.
Draw: Relegated, drop down to 18th if Sandhausen beats Heidenehim.
Loss: Relegated, rock bottom should Sandhausen score a point in Heidenheim.
SV Sandhausen
Sandhausen for many years in the 2. Bundesliga have dined off finding a way out of the relegation zone. But, this season seems like the year that Sandhausen’s luck finally runs out.
With defeat to Hansa Rostock last Friday night, Sandhausen are in a five-point hole. To survive, Sandhausen needs to win out and hope Bielefeld loses both of their final games with Paderborn or Magdeburg.
Win: Relegated, if Bielefeld draws with Paderborn
Draw: Relegated, could pass Jahn Regensburg for 17th if they lose to Eintracht Braunschweig
Loss: Relegated.